The Economic Calendar: What to Watch This Week and Why It Matters

The market is about to get the data point it’s been waiting for, but it’s the one we probably shouldn’t trust. For four weeks, the U.S. government shutdown has effectively blacked out the flow of critical economic information, leaving investors and policymakers navigating by feel. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—the agency responsible for core inflation and labor figures—has been in a state of suspended animation.

Now, the lights are flickering back on, but only for one report. The BLS has announced it will release the delayed September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data today. This isn't just another data point. In an information vacuum, a single number gains an almost mythical importance. It’s like a pilot who has lost all instruments in a storm, suddenly seeing a single, distant beacon. The entire market is now banking its next move on that one flicker of light, without questioning if the beacon itself is properly calibrated.

You can almost feel the collective tension on trading floors, the silence punctuated only by the low hum of servers, as every analyst stares at the same blank terminal, waiting for 1:30 PM BST to hit. The Federal Reserve, scheduled to make its interest rate decision next week, is watching most intently of all. This delayed report is the only significant piece of new inflation data they will have. The pressure on this single release is immense, and frankly, unreasonable.

The Information Dam Is About to Break

Think of the regular flow of economic data as a river. It provides a steady, predictable current that allows analysts to chart a course. The government shutdown built a dam across that river. For weeks, the water has been building up, and now the BLS is opening a single sluice gate to release the September CPI report. The result won't be a gentle stream; it will be a torrent of pent-up market reaction.

The consensus forecast points to a slight acceleration in headline inflation. The expectation is for a 3.1% year-over-year increase, up from 2.9% previously. Month-over-month is expected to hold steady at 0.4%. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.1% year-over-year. These numbers, in a normal environment, would suggest a persistent, but not necessarily accelerating, inflation problem.

But this is not a normal environment. I've watched markets react to CPI prints for over a decade, and the tension surrounding a delayed report is qualitatively different. It breeds volatility because the information vacuum gets filled with speculation, not analysis. The Fed is now in the unenviable position of having its next major policy decision hinge almost entirely on this one number. A significant deviation from the forecast—in either direction—could trigger an outsized market move and force the Fed’s hand.

What if the number comes in significantly hotter, say 3.4%? Does the Fed have the political cover to hike rates based on a single, delayed report from a beleaguered agency? Conversely, what does a miss to the downside signal about the real underlying momentum of the economy, which we haven't been able to properly measure for a month? These aren't just academic questions; they are the scenarios traders are programming into their algorithms right now.

A Flurry of Secondary Signals

While the U.S. CPI report is undoubtedly the main event, today’s Economic calendar: Delayed US CPI report due Today 📌 is packed with other data that will serve as the undercard. We're getting a deluge of preliminary PMI reports from Europe and the U.S. These Purchasing Managers' Indexes are survey-based and provide a timely, if sometimes noisy, snapshot of economic health.

In Europe, the HCOB PMI data for France, Germany, and the broader Euro Zone will offer a glimpse into the continent's manufacturing and services sectors. The forecasts are generally tepid, with manufacturing in Germany expected to remain just below the 50-point line that separates expansion from contraction (the forecast is 49.5, same as the previous reading). This paints a picture of a European economy that is stagnating, at best. The U.K. is in a similar boat, with its S&P Global PMIs expected to show only marginal improvement.

Later in the day, the U.S. gets its own S&P Global PMI data, followed by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment and inflation expectations report. The Michigan survey is particularly interesting as a measure of consumer psychology. The forecast for 1-year inflation expectations is 4.6%, a slight dip from 4.7%. This is the part of the data that I find genuinely puzzling; official inflation metrics are one thing, but what consumers believe will happen often becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

However, all of this is secondary. It’s context, not the core text. The market will parse the European data, glance at the Michigan sentiment, but its entire focus is locked on that one CPI number from the BLS. All other data today is simply noise until that signal comes through.

And this brings me to my central concern. The market is treating this delayed CPI report as gospel, a definitive truth delivered from on high. But we have to question the methodology. How reliable can a report be when it's compiled by a federal agency that has been shuttered for nearly a month? We have little transparency into whether data collection was disrupted or if the analytical process was rushed to meet this new, arbitrary deadline. We are placing an extraordinary amount of faith in a number produced under extraordinary circumstances. The biggest risk today isn't that the inflation number is high or low; it's that the number itself is wrong.

A Flawed Compass

Here is my core analysis: the market is about to make a significant, multi-billion dollar directional bet based on what could be a deeply flawed data point. The desperation for information has led to the idolization of this single CPI report, elevating it from a useful indicator to an infallible oracle. It is neither. A government shutdown doesn't just halt services; it degrades the quality and reliability of the data that underpins our entire financial system. We are about to watch the world react to a number born from chaos, and I suspect the market's confidence in its meaning is dangerously misplaced. We’re not getting clarity; we’re getting a single, potentially distorted snapshot to guide us through a fog.