Rivian Stock Beat Expectations: So What?
Alright, Rivian "beat" expectations. Let's dissect this PR victory, shall we? Revenue up 78%, losses only $0.65 a share instead of the predicted $0.72. Cue the confetti... or maybe just the sound of desperate investors clinging to any semblance of good news.
The Numbers Game
First off, analysts' expectations are about as reliable as a politician's promise. Seriously, how many times have these guys been wrong? This "beat" is just a tiny blip. Rivian's still bleeding cash, people. Rivian beats Wall Street’s Q3 expectations, maintains guidance
Gross profit better than expected? Oh, fantastic. $24 million. That's like finding a twenty in your old jeans when you're facing eviction. It's nice, but it doesn't solve anything. And this supposed "boost" from the VW joint venture? Color me skeptical. We'll see how long that lasts.
Then there's the $7.7 billion in liquidity. Sounds like a lot, right? Except burning through cash at Rivian's rate is like trying to fill a swimming pool with a garden hose during a drought. Scaringe says they're "well-prepared" for the R2 launch. Prepared for what, exactly? More losses? More delays? Don't even get me started on the Illinois facility.
The R2 Hype Train
Speaking of the R2, everyone's acting like it's the second coming of the Model T. A "midsize" vehicle that's supposed to save the company. At $45,000, it's still not exactly cheap, is it? And 2026? That's an eternity in the EV market. By then, who knows what the competition will look like.
Plus, they're reassuring us that there's "no anticipated delays" due to chip supplier issues. Right, because companies never lie about potential problems. I mean, seriously, are we just supposed to blindly trust them? What if there are delays? What then?
And this whole thing about rare earth minerals... China cutting back on exports? How is Rivian navigating that little minefield? Seems like a pretty big detail to gloss over, doesn't it?
Wall Street's Wishful Thinking
Analysts have a "Hold" rating on the stock. Seven "Buys," ten "Holds," and five "Sells." Translation: Nobody knows what the hell is going on, but they're too afraid to commit to a strong opinion. The average price target implies a measly 9.5% upside. Big whoop.
Here's a thought: maybe, just maybe, the whole EV market is a bit overhyped. Maybe people don't actually want electric trucks that cost more than their houses. Maybe range anxiety is a real thing. Maybe the charging infrastructure is still a joke.
I mean, let's be real, Rivian's success hinges on a lot of "maybes." And "ifs." And "hopefullys." That ain't exactly a solid foundation for a company, is it?
Then again, maybe I'm just being a grumpy old cynic. Maybe Rivian will pull off a miracle. Maybe pigs will fly. Maybe…nah.